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thing； though it may allure a fool。' And all through his history
the same point is put forward and exemplified in every fashion。
So far for the conception of history。 Now for the groundwork。 As
regards the character of the phenomena to be selected by the
scientific investigator； Aristotle had laid down the general
formula that nature should be studied in her normal manifestations。
Polybius； true to his character of applying explicitly the
principles implicit in the work of others； follows out the doctrine
of Aristotle； and lays particular stress on the rational and
undisturbed character of the development of the Roman constitution
as affording special facilities for the discovery of the laws of
its progress。 Political revolutions result from causes either
external or internal。 The former are mere disturbing forces which
lie outside the sphere of scientific calculation。 It is the latter
which are important for the establishing of principles and the
elucidation of the sequences of rational evolution。
He thus may be said to have anticipated one of the most important
truths of the modern methods of investigation： I mean that
principle which lays down that just as the study of physiology
should precede the study of pathology； just as the laws of disease
are best discovered by the phenomena presented in health； so the
method of arriving at all great social and political truths is by
the investigation of those cases where development has been normal；
rational and undisturbed。
The critical canon that the more a people has been interfered with；
the more difficult it becomes to generalise the laws of its
progress and to analyse the separate forces of its civilisation； is
one the validity of which is now generally recognised by those who
pretend to a scientific treatment of all history： and while we
have seen that Aristotle anticipated it in a general formula； to
Polybius belongs the honour of being the first to apply it
explicitly in the sphere of history。
I have shown how to this great scientific historian the motive of
his work was essentially the search for causes； and true to his
analytical spirit he is careful to examine what a cause really is
and in what part of the antecedents of any consequent it is to be
looked for。 To give an illustration： As regards the origin of the
war with Perseus； some assigned as causes the expulsion of
Abrupolis by Perseus； the expedition of the latter to Delphi； the
plot against Eumenes and the seizure of the ambassadors in Boeotia；
of these incidents the two former； Polybius points out； were merely
the pretexts； the two latter merely the occasions of the war。 The
war was really a legacy left to Perseus by his father； who was
determined to fight it out with Rome。 （19）
Here as elsewhere he is not originating any new idea。 Thucydides
had pointed out the difference between the real and the alleged
cause； and the Aristotelian dictum about revolutions； ＇Greek text
which cannot be reproduced＇； draws the distinction between cause
and occasion with the brilliancy of an epigram。 But the explicit
and rational investigation of the difference between ＇Greek text
which cannot be reproduced＇； and ＇Greek text which cannot be
reproduced＇ was reserved for Polybius。 No canon of historical
criticism can be said to be of more real value than that involved
in this distinction； and the overlooking of it has filled our
histories with the contemptible accounts of the intrigues of
courtiers and of kings and the petty plottings of backstairs
influence … particulars interesting； no doubt； to those who would
ascribe the Reformation to Anne Boleyn's pretty face； the Persian
war to the influence of a doctor or a curtain…lecture from Atossa；
or the French Revolution to Madame de Maintenon； but without any
value for those who aim at any scientific treatment of history。
But the question of method； to which I am compelled always to
return； is not yet exhausted。 There is another aspect in which it
may be regarded； and I shall now proceed to treat of it。
One of the greatest difficulties with which the modern historian
has to contend is the enormous complexity of the facts which come
under his notice： D'Alembert's suggestion that at the end of every
century a selection of facts should be made and the rest burned （if
it was really intended seriously） could not； of course； be
entertained for a moment。 A problem loses all its value when it
becomes simplified； and the world would be all the poorer if the
Sibyl of History burned her volumes。 Besides； as Gibbon pointed
out； 'a Montesquieu will detect in the most insignificant fact
relations which the vulgar overlook。'
Nor can the scientific investigator of history isolate the
particular elements； which he desires to examine； from disturbing
and extraneous causes； as the experimental chemist can do （though
sometimes； as in the case of lunatic asylums and prisons； he is
enabled to observe phenomena in a certain degree of isolation）。 So
he is compelled either to use the deductive mode of arguing from
general laws or to employ the method of abstraction； which gives a
fictitious isolation to phenomena never so isolated in actual
existence。 And this is exactly what Polybius has done as well as
Thucydides。 For； as has been well remarked； there is in the works
of these two writers a certain plastic unity of type and motive；
whatever they write is penetrated through and through with a
specific quality； a singleness and concentration of purpose； which
we may contrast with the more comprehensive width as manifested not
merely in the modern mind； but also in Herodotus。 Thucydides；
regarding society as influenced entirely by political motives； took
no account of forces of a different nature； and consequently his
results； like those of most modern political economists； have to be
modified largely （20） before they come to correspond with what we
know was the actual state of fact。 Similarly； Polybius will deal
only with those forces which tended to bring the civilised world
under the dominion of Rome （ix。 1）； and in the Thucydidean spirit
points out the want of picturesqueness and romance in his pages
which is the result of the abstract method （＇Greek text which
cannot be reproduced＇） being careful also to tell us that his
rejection of all other forces is essentially deliberate and the
result of a preconceived theory and by no means due to carelessness
of any kind。
Now； of the general value of the abstract method and the legality
of its employment in the sphere of history； this is perhaps not the
suitable occasion for any discussion。 It is； however； in all ways
worthy of note that Polybius is not merely conscious of； but dwells
with particular weight on； the fact which is usually urged as the
strongest objection to the employment of the abstract method … I
mean the conception of a society as a sort of human organism whose
parts are indissolubly connected with one another and all affected
when one member is in any way agitated。 This conception of the
organic nature of society appears first in Plato and Aristotle； who
apply it to cities。 Polybius； as his wont is； expands it to be a
general characteristic of all history。 It is an idea of the very
highest importance； especially to a man like Polybius whose
thoughts are continually turned towards the essential unity of
history and the impossibility of isolation。
Farther； as regards the particular method of investigating that
group of phenomena obtained for him by the abstract method； he will
adopt； he tells us； neither the purely deductive nor the purely
inductive mode but the union of both。 In other words； he formally
adopts that method of analysis upon the importance of which I have
dwelt before。
And lastly； while； without doubt； enormous simplicity in the
elements under consideration is the result of the employment of the
abstrac