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explaining history without it。 Polybius enters at length into the
whole question and explains its origin and the method of treating
it。 Herodotus would have believed in Scipio's dream。 Thucydides
would have ignored it entirely。 Polybius explains it。 He is the
culmination of the rational progression of Dialectic。 'Nothing；'
he says； 'shows a foolish mind more than the attempt to account for
any phenomena on the principle of chance or supernatural
intervention。 History is a search for rational causes； and there
is nothing in the world … even those phenomena which seem to us the
most remote from law and improbable … which is not the logical and
inevitable result of certain rational antecedents。'
Some things； of course； are to be rejected A PRIORI without
entering into the subject： 'As regards such miracles；' he says；
（15） 'as that on a certain statue of Artemis rain or snow never
falls though the statue stands in the open air； or that those who
enter God's shrine in Arcadia lose their natural shadows； I cannot
really be expected to argue upon the subject。 For these things are
not only utterly improbable but absolutely impossible。'
'For us to argue reasonably on an acknowledged absurdity is as vain
a task as trying to catch water in a sieve； it is really to admit
the possibility of the supernatural； which is the very point at
issue。'
What Polybius felt was that to admit the possibility of a miracle
is to annihilate the possibility of history： for just as
scientific and chemical experiments would be either impossible or
useless if exposed to the chance of continued interference on the
part of some foreign body； so the laws and principles which govern
history； the causes of phenomena； the evolution of progress； the
whole science； in a word； of man's dealings with his own race and
with nature； will remain a sealed book to him who admits the
possibility of extra…natural interference。
The stories of miracles； then； are to be rejected on A PRIORI
rational grounds； but in the case of events which we know to have
happened the scientific historian will not rest till he has
discovered their natural causes which； for instance； in the case of
the wonderful rise of the Roman Empire … the most marvellous thing；
Polybius says； which God ever brought about （16） … are to be found
in the excellence of their constitution （＇Greek text which cannot
be reproduced＇）； the wisdom of their advisers； their splendid
military arrangements； and their superstition （＇Greek text which
cannot be reproduced＇）。 For while Polybius regarded the revealed
religion as； of course； objective reality of truth； （17） he laid
great stress on its moral subjective influence； going； in one
passage on the subject； even so far as almost to excuse the
introduction of the supernatural in very small quantities into
history on account of the extremely good effect it would have on
pious people。
But perhaps there is no passage in the whole of ancient and modern
history which breathes such a manly and splendid spirit of
rationalism as one preserved to us in the Vatican … strange
resting…place for it！ … in which he treats of the terrible decay of
population which had fallen on his native land in his own day； and
which by the general orthodox public was regarded as a special
judgment of God sending childlessness on women as a punishment for
the sins of the people。 For it was a disaster quite without
parallel in the history of the land； and entirely unforeseen by any
of its political…economy writers who； on the contrary； were always
anticipating that danger would arise from an excess of population
overrunning its means of subsistence； and becoming unmanageable
through its size。 Polybius； however； will have nothing to do with
either priest or worker of miracles in this matter。 He will not
even seek that 'sacred Heart of Greece；' Delphi； Apollo's shrine；
whose inspiration even Thucydides admitted and before whose wisdom
Socrates bowed。 How foolish； he says； were the man who on this
matter would pray to God。 We must search for the rational causes；
and the causes are seen to be clear； and the method of prevention
also。 He then proceeds to notice how all this arose from the
general reluctance to marriage and to bearing the expense of
educating a large family which resulted from the carelessness and
avarice of the men of his day； and he explains on entirely rational
principles the whole of this apparently supernatural judgment。
Now； it is to be borne in mind that while his rejection of miracles
as violation of inviolable laws is entirely A PRIORI … for
discussion of such a matter is； of course； impossible for a
rational thinker … yet his rejection of supernatural intervention
rests entirely on the scientific grounds of the necessity of
looking for natural causes。 And he is quite logical in maintaining
his position on these principles。 For； where it is either
difficult or impossible to assign any rational cause for phenomena；
or to discover their laws； he acquiesces reluctantly in the
alternative of admitting some extra…natural interference which his
essentially scientific method of treating the matter has logically
forced on him； approving； for instance； of prayers for rain； on the
express ground that the laws of meteorology had not yet been
ascertained。 He would； of course； have been the first to welcome
our modern discoveries in the matter。 The passage in question is
in every way one of the most interesting in his whole work； not； of
course； as signifying any inclination on his part to acquiesce in
the supernatural； but because it shows how essentially logical and
rational his method of argument was； and how candid and fair his
mind。
Having now examined Polybius's attitude towards the supernatural
and the general ideas which guided his research； I will proceed to
examine the method he pursued in his scientific investigation of
the complex phenomena of life。 For； as I have said before in the
course of this essay； what is important in all great writers is not
so much the results they arrive at as the methods they pursue。 The
increased knowledge of facts may alter any conclusion in history as
in physical science； and the canons of speculative historical
credibility must be acknowledged to appeal rather to that
subjective attitude of mind which we call the historic sense than
to any formulated objective rules。 But a scientific method is a
gain for all time； and the true if not the only progress of
historical criticism consists in the improvement of the instruments
of research。
Now first； as regards his conception of history； I have already
pointed out that it was to him essentially a search for causes； a
problem to be solved； not a picture to be painted； a scientific
investigation into laws and tendencies； not a mere romantic account
of startling incident and wondrous adventure。 Thucydides； in the
opening of his great work； had sounded the first note of the
scientific conception of history。 'The absence of romance in my
pages；' he says； 'will； I fear； detract somewhat from its value；
but I have written my work not to be the exploit of a passing hour
but as the possession of all time。' （18） Polybius follows with
words almost entirely similar。 If； he says； we banish from history
the consideration of causes； methods and motives （＇Greek text which
cannot be reproduced＇）； and refuse to consider how far the result
of anything is its rational consequent； what is left is a mere
＇Greek text which cannot be reproduced＇； not a ＇Greek text which
cannot be reproduced＇； an oratorical essay which may give pleasure
for the moment； but which is entirely without any scientific value
for the explanation of the future。 Elsewhere he says that 'history
robbed of the exposition of its causes and laws is a profitless
thing； though it may allure a fool。' And all through his history
the same point is p