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entirely sacrificed in favour of English free competition。 Under
such circumstances the Compromise Bill of Henry Clay appeared to be
the only means of at least partially preserving the protective
system。 By this bill part of the American manufactures； viz。 those
of finer and more expensive articles； was sacrificed to foreign
competition； in order to preserve another class of them； viz。 the
manufacture of articles of a coarser and a less expensive
character。 In the meantime all appearances seem to indicate that
the protective system in North America in the course of the next
few years will again raise its head and again make new progress。
However much the English may desire to lessen and mitigate the
commercial crises in North America； however large also may be the
amount of capital which may pass over from England to North America
in the form of purchases of stock or of loans or by means of
emigration； the existing and still increasing disproportion between
the value of the exports and that of imports cannot possibly in the
long run be equalised by those means。 Alarming commercial crises；
which continually increase in their magnitude； must occur； and the
Americans must at length be led to recognise the sources of the
evil and to determine to put a stop to them。
It thus lies in the very nature of things； that the number of
the advocates of the protective system must again increase； and
those of free trade again diminish。 Hitherto； the prices of
agricultural produce have been maintained at an unusually high
level； owing to the previous prosperity of the manufactories；
through the carrying out of great public undertakings； through the
demand for necessaries of life arising from the great increase of
the production of cotton； also partially through bad harvests。 One
may； however； foresee with certainty； that these prices in the
course of the next few years will fall as much below the average as
they have hitherto ranged above it。 The greater part of the
increase of American capital has since the passing of the
Compromise Bill been devoted to agriculture； and is only now
beginning to become productive。 While thus agricultural production
has unusually increased； on the other hand the demand for it must
unusually diminish。 Firstly； because public works are no more being
undertaken to the same extent； secondly； because the manufacturing
population in consequence of foreign competition can no more
increase to an important extent； and thirdly； because the
production of cotton so greatly exceeds the consumption that the
cotton planters will be compelled； owing to the low prices of
cotton； to produce for themselves those necessaries of life which
they have hitherto procured from the Middle and Western States。 If
in addition rich harvests occur； then the Middle and Western States
will again suffer from an excess of produce； as they did before the
tariff of 1828。 But the same causes must again produce the same
results； viz。 the agriculturists of the Middle and Western States
must again arrive at the conviction； that the demand for
agricultural produce can only be increased by the increase of the
manufacturing population of the country； and that that increase can
only be brought about by an extension of the protective system。
While in this manner the partisans of protection will daily
increase in number and influence； the opposite party will diminish
in like proportion until the cotton planters under such altered
circumstances must necessarily come to the conviction that the
increase of the manufacturing population of the country and the
increase of the demand for agricultural produce and raw materials
both consist with their own interests if rightly understood。
Because； as we have shown； the cotton planters and the
Democrats in North America were striving most earnestly of their
own accord to play into the hands of the commercial interests of
England； no opportunity was offered at the moment on this side for
Mr Poulett Thompson to display his skill in commercial diplomacy。
Matters were quite in another position in France。 There people
still steadily clung to the prohibitive system。 There were indeed
many State officials who were disciples of theory； and also
deputies who were in favour of an extension of commercial relations
between England and France； and the existing alliance with England
had also rendered this view to a certain extent popular。 But how to
attain that object； opinions were less agreed； and in no respect
were they quite clear。 It seemed evident and also indisputable that
the high duties on the foreign necessaries of life and raw
materials； and the exclusion of English coal and pig…iron； operated
very disadvantageously to French industry； and that an increase in
the exports of wines； brandy； and silk fabrics would be extremely
advantageous to France。
In general； people confined themselves to universal declamation
against the disadvantages of the prohibitive system。 But to attack
this in special cases did not appear at the time to be at all
advisable。 For the Government of July had their strongest
supporters among the rich bourgeoisie； who for the most part were
interested in the great manufacturing undertakings。
Under these circumstances Mr Poulett Thompson formed a plan of
operations which does all honour to his breadth of thought and
diplomatic adroitness。 He sent to France a man thoroughly versed in
commerce and industry and in the commercial policy of France； well
known for his 'liberal sentiments' a learned man and a very
accomplished writer； Dr Bowring； who travelled through the whole of
France； and subsequently through Switzerland also； to gather on the
spot materials for arguments against the prohibitive system and in
favour of free trade。 Dr Bowring accomplished this task with his
accustomed ability and adroitness。 Especially he clearly indicated
the before…mentioned advantages of a freer commercial intercourse
between the two countries in respect of coal； pig…iron； wines； and
brandies。 In the report which he published； he chiefly confined his
arguments to these articles； in reference to the other branches of
industry he only gave statistics； without committing himself to
proofs or propositions how these could be promoted by means of free
trade with England。
Dr Bowring acted in precise accordance with the instructions
given to him by Mr Poulett Thompson； which were framed with
uncommon art and subtlety； and which appear at the head of his
report。 In these Mr Thompson makes use of the most liberal
expressions。 He expresses himself； with much consideration for the
French manufacturing interests； on the improbability that any
important result was to be expected from the contemplated
negotiations with France。 This instruction was perfectly adapted
for calming the apprehensions respecting the views of England
entertained by the French woollen and cotton manufacturing
interests which had become so powerful。 According to Mr Thompson；
it would be folly to ask for important concessions respecting
these。
On the other hand； he gives a hint how the object might more
easily be attained in respect of 'less important articles。' These
less important articles are certainly not enumerated in the
instruction； but the subsequent experience of France has completely
brought to light what Mr Thompson meant by it； for at the time of
the writing of this instruction the exports of linen yarn and linen
fabr