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〃A man is the resultant and exponent of all the forces that have
been brought to bear upon him； whether before his birth or
afterwards。 His action at any moment depends solely upon his
constitution； and on the intensity and direction of the various
agencies to which he is； and has been； subjected。 Some of these
will counteract each other； but as he is by nature； and as he has
been acted on； and is now acted on from without； so will he do； as
certainly and regularly as though he were a machine。
〃We do not generally admit this； because we do not know the whole
nature of any one； nor the whole of the forces that act upon him。
We see but a part； and being thus unable to generalise human
conduct； except very roughly； we deny that it is subject to any
fixed laws at all； and ascribe much both of a man's character and
actions to chance； or luck； or fortune； but these are only words
whereby we escape the admission of our own ignorance； and a little
reflection will teach us that the most daring flight of the
imagination or the most subtle exercise of the reason is as much
the thing that must arise； and the only thing that can by any
possibility arise； at the moment of its arising； as the falling of
a dead leaf when the wind shakes it from the tree。
〃For the future depends upon the present； and the present （whose
existence is only one of those minor compromises of which human
life is fullfor it lives only on sufferance of the past and
future） depends upon the past； and the past is unalterable。 The
only reason why we cannot see the future as plainly as the past； is
because we know too little of the actual past and actual present；
these things are too great for us； otherwise the future； in its
minutest details； would lie spread out before our eyes； and we
should lose our sense of time present by reason of the clearness
with which we should see the past and future； perhaps we should not
be even able to distinguish time at all； but that is foreign。 What
we do know is； that the more the past and present are known； the
more the future can be predicted； and that no one dreams of
doubting the fixity of the future in cases where he is fully
cognisant of both past and present； and has had experience of the
consequences that followed from such a past and such a present on
previous occasions。 He perfectly well knows what will happen； and
will stake his whole fortune thereon。
〃And this is a great blessing； for it is the foundation on which
morality and science are built。 The assurance that the future is
no arbitrary and changeable thing； but that like futures will
invariably follow like presents； is the groundwork on which we lay
all our plansthe faith on which we do every conscious action of
our lives。 If this were not so we should be without a guide； we
should have no confidence in acting； and hence we should never act；
for there would be no knowing that the results which will follow
now will be the same as those which followed before。
〃Who would plough or sow if he disbelieved in the fixity of the
future？ Who would throw water on a blazing house if the action of
water upon fire were uncertain？ Men will only do their utmost when
they feel certain that the future will discover itself against them
if their utmost has not been done。 The feeling of such a certainty
is a constituent part of the sum of the forces at work upon them；
and will act most powerfully on the best and most moral men。 Those
who are most firmly persuaded that the future is immutably bound up
with the present in which their work is lying； will best husband
their present； and till it with the greatest care。 The future must
be a lottery to those who think that the same combinations can
sometimes precede one set of results； and sometimes another。 If
their belief is sincere they will speculate instead of working：
these ought to be the immoral men； the others have the strongest
spur to exertion and morality； if their belief is a living one。
〃The bearing of all this upon the machines is not immediately
apparent； but will become so presently。 In the meantime I must
deal with friends who tell me that； though the future is fixed as
regards inorganic matter； and in some respects with regard to man；
yet that there are many ways in which it cannot be considered as
fixed。 Thus； they say that fire applied to dry shavings； and well
fed with oxygen gas； will always produce a blaze； but that a coward
brought into contact with a terrifying object will not always
result in a man running away。 Nevertheless； if there be two
cowards perfectly similar in every respect； and if they be
subjected in a perfectly similar way to two terrifying agents；
which are themselves perfectly similar； there are few who will not
expect a perfect similarity in the running away； even though a
thousand years intervene between the original combination and its
being repeated。
〃The apparently greater regularity in the results of chemical than
of human combinations arises from our inability to perceive the
subtle differences in human combinationscombinations which are
never identically repeated。 Fire we know； and shavings we know；
but no two men ever were or ever will be exactly alike； and the
smallest difference may change the whole conditions of the problem。
Our registry of results must be infinite before we could arrive at
a full forecast of future combinations； the wonder is that there is
as much certainty concerning human action as there is； and
assuredly the older we grow the more certain we feel as to what
such and such a kind of person will do in given circumstances； but
this could never be the case unless human conduct were under the
influence of laws； with the working of which we become more and
more familiar through experience。
〃If the above is sound； it follows that the regularity with which
machinery acts is no proof of the absence of vitality； or at least
of germs which may be developed into a new phase of life。 At first
sight it would indeed appear that a vapour…engine cannot help going
when set upon a line of rails with the steam up and the machinery
in full play； whereas the man whose business it is to drive it can
help doing so at any moment that he pleases； so that the first has
no spontaneity； and is not possessed of any sort of free will；
while the second has and is。
〃This is true up to a certain point； the driver can stop the engine
at any moment that he pleases； but he can only please to do so at
certain points which have been fixed for him by others； or in the
case of unexpected obstructions which force him to please to do so。
His pleasure is not spontaneous； there is an unseen choir of
influences around him； which make it impossible for him to act in
any other way than one。 It is known beforehand how much strength
must be given to these influences； just as it is known beforehand
how much coal and water are necessary for the vapour…engine itself；
and curiously enough it will be found that the influences brought
to bear upon the driver are of the same kind as those brought to
bear upon the enginethat is to say； food and warmth。 The driver
is obedient to his masters； because he gets food and warmth from
them； and if these are withheld or given in insufficient quantities
he will cease to drive； in like manner the engine will cease to
work if it is insufficiently fed。 The only difference is； that the
man is conscious about his wants； and the engine （beyond refusing
to work） does not seem to be so； but this is temporary； and has
been dealt with above。
〃Accordingly； the requisite strength being given to the motives
that are to drive the driver； there has never； or hardly ever； been
an instance of a man stopping his engine through wantonness。 But
such a case might occur； yes； and it might occur that the engine
should break down： but if the train is stopped from some trivial
motive it will be found either that the strength of the necessary
influences has been miscalculated； or that the man has been
miscalculated； in the same way as an engine may break down from an
unsuspected flaw； but even in such a case there will have been no
spontaneity； the action w